Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Farmer-Labor Party | 118.0k | 70.5% |
Democratic Party | 49.3k | 29.5% |
Why Vermont voters lean toward Fatima McAllister over Latoya Johnson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Latoya Johnson's vote can be persuaded across to Fatima McAllister, and 20.0% of Fatima McAllister's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.2 pts of that movable slice.