Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
25 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 149,360 votes buys one seat; 1 of the 25 were settled on largest remainder.
Why Illinois voters lean toward Imani Adams over Nancy Fitzgerald. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Nancy Fitzgerald's vote can be persuaded across to Imani Adams, and 20.0% of Imani Adams's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.4 pts of that movable slice.