Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
25 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 70,123 votes buys one seat; 3 of the 25 were settled on largest remainder.
Why Illinois voters lean toward Lukas Hochburger over James O'Connor. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of James O'Connor's vote can be persuaded across to Lukas Hochburger, and 20.0% of Lukas Hochburger's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 2.0 pts of that movable slice.