1953 North Carolina House Race · 12 seats

Completed

Final Election Results

Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.

Final seat allocation

Frances Barnes won 7 of 12 seats

Frances Barnes7 seats

Saucy Santana3 seats

Jasmine Morales2 seats

Final Results1.37M votes cast · 25 turns

Candidate	Votes	Share	Seats
Frances BarnesNPPWinner Democratic Party	752.3k	54.7%	7
Saucy SantanaWinner Democratic Party	399.5k	29.1%	3
Jasmine MoralesNPPWinner Farmer-Labor Party	222.6k	16.2%	2

Candidate

Frances BarnesNPPWinner

Democratic Party

Votes

752.3k

54.7%

Seats

Candidate

Saucy SantanaWinner

Democratic Party

Votes

399.5k

29.1%

Seats

Candidate

Jasmine MoralesNPPWinner

Farmer-Labor Party

Votes

222.6k

16.2%

Seats

Persuasion Drivers

FocusOpponent

Why North Carolina voters lean toward Frances Barnes over Jasmine Morales. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.

Persuasion drivers (pts of the persuadable slice)

Candidate Support0.0 pts

Policy alignment+0.2 pts

Money0.0 pts

Incumbency0.0 pts

Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Jasmine Morales's vote can be persuaded across to Frances Barnes, and 20.0% of Frances Barnes's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.2 pts of that movable slice.

Election Trends

Frances BarnesSaucy SantanaJasmine Morales