Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
14 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 166,536 votes buys one seat; 3 of the 14 were settled on largest remainder.
Why New Jersey voters lean toward Matthew Hall over Alexander O'Brien. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Alexander O'Brien's vote can be persuaded across to Matthew Hall, and 20.0% of Matthew Hall's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 3.0 pts of that movable slice.