Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.29M | 35.7% | 9 | |
| 1.19M | 33.0% | 8 | |
| 1.13M | 31.3% | 7 |
Why Ohio voters lean toward Rgold over Karl Kautsky. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Karl Kautsky's vote can be persuaded across to Rgold, and 20.0% of Rgold's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.1 pts of that movable slice.