Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
Seats update each turn from the current vote count, using largest-remainder allocation. Final allocation is set when the election closes.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 111.9k | 51.2% | 1 |
Farmer-Labor Party | 106.7k | 48.8% | 1 |
Why South Dakota voters lean toward Lawrence Brennan over Deborah Palmer. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Deborah Palmer's vote can be persuaded across to Lawrence Brennan, and 20.0% of Lawrence Brennan's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.