Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
Partisan-lean baseline for MD. Each party's share is the slow-moving registered-voter influence, not a vote-share guarantee. Voters still need persuasion to turn out and vote with their lean.
The movable figure is the share of each party's own vote that campaigning can shift in one cycle. A large lean means a large starting base and a small movable slice.
Why MD voters lean toward Flowery Dreemurr over Lukas Hochburger. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Lukas Hochburger's vote can be persuaded across to Flowery Dreemurr, and 20.0% of Flowery Dreemurr's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.5 pts of that movable slice.
501 Electoral Votes · 57.6% Popular Vote
| # | Candidate | Running Mate | EV | Vote % | Votes | Fav | NPI | Cash | CS | Endorsements |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lukas Hochburger Democratic PartyWinner | Selina Meyer | 501 | 57.6% | 218.38M | 70% | 1.3K | — | — | 27 |
| 2 | Flowery Dreemurr Farmer-Labor Party | Tamaki Suoh | 30 | 42.4% | 160.44M | 60% | 810 | — | — | 20 |
All 50 states + DC · Click column headers to sort
State | EV↓ | Winner | Margin | Vote Share | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York(NY) | 42 | Lukas Hochburger | +13.0% | 56.5% | 38.37M |
California(CA) | 35 | Lukas Hochburger | +7.7% | 53.9% | 29.46M |
Pennsylvania(PA) | 29 | Lukas Hochburger | +7.1% | 53.6% | 25.98M |
Texas(TX) | 28 | Lukas Hochburger | +12.5% | 56.3% | 20.07M |
Illinois(IL) | 27 | Lukas Hochburger | +13.4% | 56.7% | 23.10M |
Ohio(OH) | 26 | Lukas Hochburger | +6.6% | 53.3% | 22.56M |
Michigan(MI) | 23 | Lukas Hochburger | +8.4% | 54.2% | 17.94M |
New Jersey(NJ) | 16 | Lukas Hochburger | +9.9% | 55.0% | 12.66M |
Indiana(IN) | 14 | Lukas Hochburger | +19.7% | 59.8% | 10.66M |
Massachusetts(MA) | 14 | Lukas Hochburger | +24.8% | 62.4% | 11.68M |
North Carolina(NC) | 14 | Lukas Hochburger | +47.4% | 73.7% | 9.08M |
Virginia(VA) | 13 | Lukas Hochburger | +14.4% | 57.2% | 8.94M |
Georgia(GA) | 12 | Lukas Hochburger | +40.9% | 70.4% | 7.69M |
Missouri(MO) | 12 | Lukas Hochburger | +17.2% | 58.6% | 8.37M |
Tennessee(TN) | 12 | Lukas Hochburger | +38.2% | 69.1% | 7.42M |
Wisconsin(WI) | 12 | Lukas Hochburger | +4.5% | 52.3% | 9.38M |
Alabama(AL) | 10 | Lukas Hochburger | +41.2% | 70.6% | 6.59M |
Florida(FL) | 10 | Lukas Hochburger | +11.8% | 55.9% | 7.45M |
Kentucky(KY) | 10 | Lukas Hochburger | +33.3% | 66.7% | 6.30M |
Louisiana(LA) | 10 | Lukas Hochburger | +29.4% | 64.7% | 6.10M |
Minnesota(MN) | 10 | Lukas Hochburger | +8.6% | 54.3% | 7.72M |
Washington(WA) | 10 | Lukas Hochburger | +7.4% | 53.7% | 6.64M |
Iowa(IA) | 9 | Lukas Hochburger | +29.3% | 64.6% | 6.18M |
Maryland(MD) | 9 | Flowery Dreemurr | +0.1% | 50.1% | 6.34M |
Connecticut(CT) | 8 | Lukas Hochburger | +27.2% | 63.6% | 5.31M |
Mississippi(MS) | 8 | Lukas Hochburger | +26.5% | 63.2% | 4.21M |
Oklahoma(OK) | 8 | Lukas Hochburger | +31.5% | 65.7% | 5.59M |
South Carolina(SC) | 8 | Lukas Hochburger | +44.2% | 72.1% | 4.36M |
Arkansas(AR) | 7 | Lukas Hochburger | +33.9% | 67.0% | 3.76M |
Kansas(KS) | 7 | Flowery Dreemurr | +0.4% | 50.2% | 4.61M |
West Virginia(WV) | 7 | Lukas Hochburger | +16.5% | 58.3% | 4.64M |
Colorado(CO) | 6 | Flowery Dreemurr | +1.1% | 50.5% | 3.69M |
Oregon(OR) | 6 | Lukas Hochburger | +3.1% | 51.6% | 3.89M |
Arizona(AZ) | 5 | Flowery Dreemurr | +9.5% | 54.7% | 2.02M |
Nebraska(NE) | 5 | Lukas Hochburger | +5.4% | 52.7% | 2.68M |
Idaho(ID) | 4 | Lukas Hochburger | +5.5% | 52.7% | 1.36M |
Maine(ME) | 4 | Lukas Hochburger | +5.1% | 52.5% | 2.16M |
Montana(MT) | 4 | Lukas Hochburger | +11.9% | 56.0% | 1.46M |
New Hampshire(NH) | 4 | Lukas Hochburger | +6.6% | 53.3% | 1.36M |
New Mexico(NM) | 4 | Lukas Hochburger | +14.9% | 57.5% | 1.76M |
North Dakota(ND) | 4 | Lukas Hochburger | +7.4% | 53.7% | 1.26M |
Rhode Island(RI) | 4 | Lukas Hochburger | +31.4% | 65.7% | 1.98M |
South Dakota(SD) | 4 | Lukas Hochburger | +0.8% | 50.4% | 1.33M |
Utah(UT) | 4 | Lukas Hochburger | +4.0% | 52.0% | 1.68M |
Delaware(DE) | 3 | Lukas Hochburger | +22.4% | 61.2% | 908.0k |
Nevada(NV) | 3 | Lukas Hochburger | +10.8% | 55.4% | 459.6k |
Vermont(VT) | 3 | Flowery Dreemurr | +8.7% | 54.4% | 896.9k |
Wyoming(WY) | 3 | Lukas Hochburger | +11.7% | 55.8% | 780.0k |