Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Aisha Diaz holds 68.8% against 31.2% for the nearest rival.
Why Arizona voters lean toward Aisha Diaz over Darnell Cunningham. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Darnell Cunningham's vote can be persuaded across to Aisha Diaz, and 20.0% of Aisha Diaz's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -1.6 pts of that movable slice.