Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Farmer-Labor Party | 157.6k | 62.5% |
Jamal PriceNPP Democratic Party | 94.7k | 37.5% |
Why Arizona voters lean toward Jamal Price over Kenneth Phillips. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Kenneth Phillips's vote can be persuaded across to Jamal Price, and 20.0% of Jamal Price's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.0 pts of that movable slice.