Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 426.7k | 57.2% | |
Darnell YangNPP Farmer-Labor Party | 319.7k | 42.8% |
Why Connecticut voters lean toward Darnell Yang over Gerald Bush. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Gerald Bush's vote can be persuaded across to Darnell Yang, and 20.0% of Darnell Yang's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.7 pts of that movable slice.