Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 552.8k | 51.2% |
Farmer-Labor Party | 526.3k | 48.8% |
Why Minnesota voters lean toward Andrew Harris over Daniel Schmidt. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Daniel Schmidt's vote can be persuaded across to Andrew Harris, and 20.0% of Andrew Harris's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.1 pts of that movable slice.