Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 3.14M | 51.4% |
| 2.97M | 48.6% |
Why New York voters lean toward Katherine Wagner over Abo Khold. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Abo Khold's vote can be persuaded across to Katherine Wagner, and 20.0% of Katherine Wagner's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.