Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Farmer-Labor Party | 340.4k | 62.1% |
Democratic Party | 207.6k | 37.9% |
Why Oregon voters lean toward Lisa Lawrence over Latoya Lincoln. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Latoya Lincoln's vote can be persuaded across to Lisa Lawrence, and 20.0% of Lisa Lawrence's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.2 pts of that movable slice.