Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 335.9k | 56.5% | |
James GrantNPP Farmer-Labor Party | 258.3k | 43.5% |
Why South Carolina voters lean toward James Grant over Marine Dafeur. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Marine Dafeur's vote can be persuaded across to James Grant, and 20.0% of James Grant's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.6 pts of that movable slice.