Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Peter Temple Morris holds 99.0% against 1.0% for the nearest rival.
Why Texas voters lean toward Peter Temple Morris over Carlos Menem. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Carlos Menem's vote can be persuaded across to Peter Temple Morris, and 20.0% of Peter Temple Morris's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 2.1 pts of that movable slice.