Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Charles FoxNPP Farmer-Labor Party | 91.9k | 68.7% |
Democratic Party | 41.9k | 31.3% |
Why Vermont voters lean toward Patrick Coleman over Charles Fox. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Charles Fox's vote can be persuaded across to Patrick Coleman, and 20.0% of Patrick Coleman's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.2 pts of that movable slice.