Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 424.5k | 53.9% | |
| 363.3k | 46.1% |
Why Wisconsin voters lean toward Charles Leclerc over George Wallace. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of George Wallace's vote can be persuaded across to Charles Leclerc, and 20.0% of Charles Leclerc's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.0 pts of that movable slice.