Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Deborah Simmons took 55.6% against 44.4% for the nearest rival.
Why Wisconsin voters lean toward Robert Kastenmeier over Deborah Simmons. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Deborah Simmons's vote can be persuaded across to Robert Kastenmeier, and 20.0% of Robert Kastenmeier's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.6 pts of that movable slice.