/Arkansas
1954 Arkansas State Senate Race · 35 seats
CompletedFinal Election Results
Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
Final seat allocation
Betty Shah won 21 of 35 seats
Betty Shah21 seats
Roberto Ferguson14 seats
Final Results611.4k votes cast · 49 turns
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
 Democratic Party | 373.5k | 61.1% | 21 |
 Farmer-Labor Party | 237.8k | 38.9% | 14 |
Persuasion Drivers
ARWhy Arkansas voters lean toward Betty Shah over Roberto Ferguson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Persuasion drivers (pts of the persuadable slice)
Candidate Support0.0 pts
Policy alignment-0.2 pts
Money0.0 pts
Incumbency0.0 pts
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Roberto Ferguson's vote can be persuaded across to Betty Shah, and 20.0% of Betty Shah's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.2 pts of that movable slice.
Election Trends
Auto-scaled
Betty ShahRoberto Ferguson