Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Österreichische Volkspartei | 431.6k | 32.9% |
George ShahNPP Verband der Unabhängigen | 403.1k | 30.8% |
Sozialistische Partei Österreichs | 323.8k | 24.7% |
Kommunistische Partei Österreichs | 151.7k | 11.6% |
Why AT_OOE voters lean toward George Shah over Matthew Fitzgerald. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Matthew Fitzgerald's vote can be persuaded across to George Shah, and 20.0% of George Shah's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.3 pts of that movable slice.