Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
41 seats, apportioned by share of 1,405,476 votes cast.
Why AT_OOE voters lean toward Mei Hoffmann over Ebony Sullivan. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Ebony Sullivan's vote can be persuaded across to Mei Hoffmann, and 20.0% of Mei Hoffmann's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.3 pts of that movable slice.