Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
41 seats, apportioned by share of 725,291 votes cast.
Why AT_OOE voters lean toward Ebony Sullivan over Lisa Nelson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Lisa Nelson's vote can be persuaded across to Ebony Sullivan, and 20.0% of Ebony Sullivan's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.4 pts of that movable slice.