Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
141 seats, apportioned by share of 8,897,561 votes cast.
Why NORDESTE voters lean toward Ivan Tavares over Roberto Freire. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Roberto Freire's vote can be persuaded across to Ivan Tavares, and 20.0% of Ivan Tavares's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.1 pts of that movable slice.