Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Pedro Simon holds 13.7% against 12.7% for the nearest rival.
Why SUL voters lean toward Fernando Bezerra over Caio Pacheco. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Caio Pacheco's vote can be persuaded across to Fernando Bezerra, and 20.0% of Fernando Bezerra's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.1 pts of that movable slice.