Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 280.3k | 33.8% | |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 241.4k | 29.1% |
Rolf HahnNPP Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 125.4k | 15.1% |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 122.1k | 14.7% |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 60.9k | 7.3% |
Why BEO voters lean toward Fritz Lehmann over Erich Hofmann. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Erich Hofmann's vote can be persuaded across to Fritz Lehmann, and 20.0% of Fritz Lehmann's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -1.1 pts of that movable slice.