Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 361.0k | 42.6% | |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 150.6k | 17.8% |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 136.8k | 16.2% |
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 115.4k | 13.6% |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 82.7k | 9.8% |
Why BEO voters lean toward Hermann Köhl over Fritz Lehmann. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Fritz Lehmann's vote can be persuaded across to Hermann Köhl, and 20.0% of Hermann Köhl's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.