Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 1.71M | 44.1% | |
Egon MoellerNPP Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 735.1k | 18.9% |
Jutta SchmidNPP National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 533.3k | 13.7% |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 482.1k | 12.4% |
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 419.3k | 10.8% |
Why SN voters lean toward Guenter Lorenz over Egon Moeller. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Egon Moeller's vote can be persuaded across to Guenter Lorenz, and 20.0% of Guenter Lorenz's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.6 pts of that movable slice.