Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 622.4k | 32.0% | |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 450.2k | 23.1% |
Hans WagnerNPP Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 328.7k | 16.9% |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 310.4k | 15.9% |
Peter WolfNPP National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 235.8k | 12.1% |
Why TH voters lean toward Herbert Becker over Heidrun Schumacher. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Heidrun Schumacher's vote can be persuaded across to Herbert Becker, and 20.0% of Herbert Becker's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.9 pts of that movable slice.