Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 704.4k | 35.6% | |
Hans WagnerNPP Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 339.7k | 17.2% |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 336.6k | 17.0% |
Peter WolfNPP National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 302.4k | 15.3% |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 295.9k | 14.9% |
Why TH voters lean toward Erich Lindner over Herbert Becker. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Herbert Becker's vote can be persuaded across to Erich Lindner, and 20.0% of Erich Lindner's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.7 pts of that movable slice.