Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 440.6k | 26.8% | 17 | |
| 343.0k | 20.9% | 13 | |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 239.1k | 14.5% | 9 |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 186.6k | 11.3% | 8 |
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 170.6k | 10.4% | 8 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 143.9k | 8.8% | 8 |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 121.1k | 7.4% | 8 |
Why BB voters lean toward Wolfram Kraus over Manfred Mueller. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Manfred Mueller's vote can be persuaded across to Wolfram Kraus, and 20.0% of Wolfram Kraus's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.0 pts of that movable slice.