Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 404.0k | 24.2% | 9 |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 360.8k | 21.6% | 27 |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 339.5k | 20.4% | 9 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 336.6k | 20.2% | 9 |
| 227.1k | 13.6% | 17 |
Why BB voters lean toward Wolfram Kraus over Dagmar Huber. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Dagmar Huber's vote can be persuaded across to Wolfram Kraus, and 20.0% of Wolfram Kraus's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.7 pts of that movable slice.