Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 245.3k | 33.1% | 11 | |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 146.3k | 19.8% | 7 |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 124.5k | 16.8% | 4 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 82.6k | 11.2% | 4 |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 78.1k | 10.5% | 3 |
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 63.7k | 8.6% | 3 |
Why BEO voters lean toward Eberhard Fischer over Erika Schulze. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Erika Schulze's vote can be persuaded across to Eberhard Fischer, and 20.0% of Eberhard Fischer's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.