Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200.6k | 26.3% | 12 | |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 133.6k | 17.5% | 4 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 118.1k | 15.5% | 4 |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 115.8k | 15.2% | 3 |
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 99.0k | 13.0% | 3 |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 95.8k | 12.6% | 6 |
Why BEO voters lean toward Erika Schulze over Klaus Mayer. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Klaus Mayer's vote can be persuaded across to Erika Schulze, and 20.0% of Erika Schulze's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.