Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 300.1k | 22.6% | 18 | |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 234.3k | 17.6% | 14 |
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 169.4k | 12.7% | 6 |
| 167.8k | 12.6% | 4 | |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 164.8k | 12.4% | 7 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 155.1k | 11.7% | 3 |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 138.7k | 10.4% | 6 |
Why MV voters lean toward Sigrid Weiss over Sieglinde Koehler. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Sieglinde Koehler's vote can be persuaded across to Sigrid Weiss, and 20.0% of Sigrid Weiss's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.6 pts of that movable slice.