Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 288.7k | 21.3% | 6 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 283.9k | 20.9% | 7 |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 262.8k | 19.4% | 7 |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 237.9k | 17.5% | 6 |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 130.1k | 9.6% | 15 |
C Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 126.1k | 9.3% | 14 |
| 27.9k | 2.1% | 3 |
Why MV voters lean toward Sieglinde Koehler over Helmut Weber. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Helmut Weber's vote can be persuaded across to Sieglinde Koehler, and 20.0% of Sieglinde Koehler's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.9 pts of that movable slice.