Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 817.1k | 23.4% | 45 |
| 702.3k | 20.1% | 38 | |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 555.7k | 15.9% | 17 |
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 521.7k | 14.9% | 17 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 507.1k | 14.5% | 17 |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 391.6k | 11.2% | 17 |
Why SN voters lean toward Wolfram Winkler over Dieter Zimmermann. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Dieter Zimmermann's vote can be persuaded across to Wolfram Winkler, and 20.0% of Wolfram Winkler's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.7 pts of that movable slice.