Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 640.8k | 18.1% | 42 |
| 620.2k | 17.5% | 41 | |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 591.1k | 16.7% | 17 |
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 586.1k | 16.5% | 17 |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 581.3k | 16.4% | 17 |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 525.2k | 14.8% | 17 |
Why SN voters lean toward Dieter Zimmermann over Werner Mayer. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Werner Mayer's vote can be persuaded across to Dieter Zimmermann, and 20.0% of Dieter Zimmermann's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.5 pts of that movable slice.