Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 705.1k | 27.3% | 62 |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 547.2k | 21.2% | 13 |
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 471.6k | 18.2% | 12 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 461.4k | 17.8% | 13 |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 401.5k | 15.5% | 12 |
Why ST voters lean toward Hartmut Guenther over Joachim Meier. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Joachim Meier's vote can be persuaded across to Hartmut Guenther, and 20.0% of Hartmut Guenther's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.5 pts of that movable slice.