Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 529.2k | 20.2% | 12 |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 521.5k | 19.9% | 13 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 521.0k | 19.9% | 13 |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 513.2k | 19.6% | 12 |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 394.5k | 15.0% | 45 |
| 144.5k | 5.5% | 17 |
Why ST voters lean toward Herbert Schulz over Karl Schulz. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Karl Schulz's vote can be persuaded across to Herbert Schulz, and 20.0% of Herbert Schulz's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.1 pts of that movable slice.