Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
| 459.9k | 26.2% | 23 | |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 398.2k | 22.7% | 19 |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 251.8k | 14.4% | 9 |
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 251.2k | 14.3% | 8 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 209.6k | 12.0% | 9 |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 182.0k | 10.4% | 8 |
Why TH voters lean toward Klaus Krause over Heidrun Franke. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Heidrun Franke's vote can be persuaded across to Klaus Krause, and 20.0% of Klaus Krause's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.4 pts of that movable slice.