Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Demokratische Bauernpartei Deutschlands | 300.5k | 16.9% | 8 |
Liberal-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 290.3k | 16.3% | 9 |
National-Demokratische Partei Deutschlands | 282.4k | 15.8% | 8 |
Christlich-Demokratische Union (Ost) | 276.9k | 15.5% | 9 |
| 247.6k | 13.9% | 16 | |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 195.6k | 11.0% | 13 |
Sozialistische Einheitspartei Deutschlands | 188.7k | 10.6% | 13 |
Why TH voters lean toward Helga Schmitt over Ursula Scholz. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Ursula Scholz's vote can be persuaded across to Helga Schmitt, and 20.0% of Helga Schmitt's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.