Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
31 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 48,249 votes buys one seat; 2 of the 31 were settled on largest remainder.
Why ES_NOR voters lean toward Oscar Prieto Lozano over Rafael Ramirez Moreno. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Rafael Ramirez Moreno's vote can be persuaded across to Oscar Prieto Lozano, and 20.0% of Oscar Prieto Lozano's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -1.0 pts of that movable slice.