Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
31 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 47,501 votes buys one seat; 4 of the 31 were settled on largest remainder.
Why ES_NOR voters lean toward Sara Serrano Sanchez over Jaime Gallego. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Jaime Gallego's vote can be persuaded across to Sara Serrano Sanchez, and 20.0% of Sara Serrano Sanchez's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.4 pts of that movable slice.