Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Rafael KingNPP Maalaisliitto | 199.3k | 33.0% |
Amit StevensNPP Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 143.8k | 23.8% |
Suomen Kansan Demokraattinen Liitto | 143.1k | 23.7% |
Kansallinen Kokoomus | 117.2k | 19.4% |
Why FI_OST voters lean toward Rafael King over Amit Stevens. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Amit Stevens's vote can be persuaded across to Rafael King, and 20.0% of Rafael King's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.3 pts of that movable slice.