Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Kansallinen Kokoomus | 156.4k | 26.0% |
Rafael KingNPP Maalaisliitto | 151.1k | 25.1% |
Suomen Kansan Demokraattinen Liitto | 150.4k | 25.0% |
Amit StevensNPP Suomen Sosialidemokraattinen Puolue | 143.5k | 23.9% |
Why FI_OST voters lean toward Rafael King over Amit Stevens. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Amit Stevens's vote can be persuaded across to Rafael King, and 20.0% of Rafael King's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.3 pts of that movable slice.