Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Mouvement républicain populaire | 405.7k | 27.5% |
Rassemblement des gauches républicaines | 304.4k | 20.6% |
Parti communiste français | 262.3k | 17.8% |
Robert BaronNPP Rassemblement du peuple français | 252.3k | 17.1% |
Section française de l'Internationale ouvrière | 250.9k | 17.0% |
Why FR_CEN voters lean toward Alain Lemaire over Suzanne Dumas. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Suzanne Dumas's vote can be persuaded across to Alain Lemaire, and 20.0% of Alain Lemaire's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.0 pts of that movable slice.