Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Section française de l'Internationale ouvrière | 372.8k | 23.2% |
Mouvement républicain populaire | 358.0k | 22.3% |
Parti communiste français | 342.1k | 21.3% |
Robert BaronNPP Rassemblement du peuple français | 273.1k | 17.0% |
Rassemblement des gauches républicaines | 261.6k | 16.3% |
Why FR_CEN voters lean toward Alain Lemaire over Suzanne Dumas. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Suzanne Dumas's vote can be persuaded across to Alain Lemaire, and 20.0% of Alain Lemaire's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.0 pts of that movable slice.