Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Mouvement républicain populaire | 577.6k | 26.8% |
Section française de l'Internationale ouvrière | 532.9k | 24.7% |
Rassemblement des gauches républicaines | 375.4k | 17.4% |
Rassemblement du peuple français | 338.7k | 15.7% |
Parti communiste français | 334.5k | 15.5% |
Why FR_EST voters lean toward Elisabeth Boyer over Eric Bertrand. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Eric Bertrand's vote can be persuaded across to Elisabeth Boyer, and 20.0% of Elisabeth Boyer's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.2 pts of that movable slice.