Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Mouvement républicain populaire | 1.07M | 29.3% |
Section française de l'Internationale ouvrière | 810.8k | 22.1% |
Parti communiste français | 664.7k | 18.1% |
Rassemblement du peuple français | 626.7k | 17.1% |
Rassemblement des gauches républicaines | 493.2k | 13.4% |
Why FR_IDF voters lean toward Maurice Petit over Chantal Morin. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Chantal Morin's vote can be persuaded across to Maurice Petit, and 20.0% of Maurice Petit's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.