Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Section française de l'Internationale ouvrière | 676.6k | 23.1% |
Mouvement républicain populaire | 658.9k | 22.5% |
Parti communiste français | 627.5k | 21.5% |
Rassemblement du peuple français | 504.5k | 17.2% |
Rassemblement des gauches républicaines | 457.4k | 15.6% |
Why FR_NOR voters lean toward Julien Dumont over Thierry Meunier. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Thierry Meunier's vote can be persuaded across to Julien Dumont, and 20.0% of Julien Dumont's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.